@GeniusGTX
Marc Andreessen says the four most dangerous words in investing are "this time is different." But this time it's actually different. He's referring to the AI boom when he mentioned this. For 80 years, the industry has followed the same pattern. 1) Excitement builds 2) Money pours in 3) The technology fails to deliver 4) The industry collapses. Here are 4 examples of when this happened in AI: • In 1943, the original neural network paper was written. It proved that simple mathematical models of brain cells could perform any logical computation. It was a foundational breakthrough but didn't takeoff. • In 1955, scientists got a grant to spend 10 weeks at Dartmouth and believed they could achieve AGI by the end of the summer. They did not. • In the 1980s, corporations poured over a billion dollars into "expert systems," AI programs designed to replicate the decision-making of human specialists in medicine, finance, and engineering. By 1987, this entire market crashed. • In 2016-17, machine learning hype surged again. It faded quickly. Each time, the technology underdelivered and the money dried up. But here's what really different about this time. AI has made four breakthroughs back to back. 1) Language models 2) Reasoning 3) Coding agents 4) Self-improvement And ALL are generating revenue in production right now. That's why old Nvidia chips are gaining value instead of depreciating. And this has literally never happened in computing before. Every GPU is sold out for the next 3-4 years. He calls betting against this "essentially suicidal" and "an invitation to get your face ripped off." He calls it "an 80-year overnight success." Researchers worked their entire lives on this, and many passed away without seeing it work. Now it is all arriving at once. — Marc Andreessen (@pmarca), co-founder at a16z (@a16z) on the Latent Space podcast (@latentspacepod)