🐦 Twitter Post Details

Viewing enriched Twitter post

@natolambert

I spent some time trying to distill all the complex factors impacting open models -- economics, capabilities, distribution, policy, etc. -- into a clear list of beliefs. Here they are in full. 1. It’s surprising that the top closed models did not show a growing capability margin over open models, based on compute differences for training and research, especially in the second half of 2025 and through today.

πŸ“Š Media Metadata

{
  "score": 0.4,
  "score_components": {
    "author": 0.09,
    "engagement": 0.0,
    "quality": 0.1,
    "source": 0.135,
    "nlp": 0.05,
    "recency": 0.025
  },
  "scored_at": "2026-04-15T20:08:21.611078",
  "import_source": "api_import",
  "source_tagged_at": "2026-04-15T20:08:21.611091",
  "enriched": true,
  "enriched_at": "2026-04-15T20:08:21.611094"
}

πŸ”§ Raw API Response

{
  "type": "tweet",
  "id": "2044483587680985111",
  "url": "https://x.com/natolambert/status/2044483587680985111",
  "twitterUrl": "https://twitter.com/natolambert/status/2044483587680985111",
  "text": "I spent some time trying to distill all the complex factors impacting open models -- economics, capabilities, distribution, policy, etc. -- into a clear list of beliefs. Here they are in full.\n\n1. It’s surprising that the top closed models did not show a growing capability margin over open models, based on compute differences for training and research, especially in the second half of 2025 and through today.",
  "source": "Twitter for iPhone",
  "retweetCount": 6,
  "replyCount": 7,
  "likeCount": 62,
  "quoteCount": 0,
  "viewCount": 6271,
  "createdAt": "Wed Apr 15 18:30:46 +0000 2026",
  "lang": "en",
  "bookmarkCount": 34,
  "isReply": false,
  "inReplyToId": null,
  "conversationId": "2044483587680985111",
  "displayTextRange": [
    0,
    280
  ],
  "inReplyToUserId": null,
  "inReplyToUsername": null,
  "author": {
    "type": "user",
    "userName": "natolambert",
    "url": "https://x.com/natolambert",
    "twitterUrl": "https://twitter.com/natolambert",
    "id": "2939913921",
    "name": "Nathan Lambert",
    "isVerified": false,
    "isBlueVerified": true,
    "verifiedType": null,
    "profilePicture": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1732079679610425344/YqSwiBqA_normal.jpg",
    "coverPicture": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_banners/2939913921/1772899381",
    "description": "",
    "location": "Seattle",
    "followers": 80258,
    "following": 878,
    "status": "",
    "canDm": true,
    "canMediaTag": true,
    "createdAt": "Wed Dec 24 20:14:33 +0000 2014",
    "entities": {
      "description": {
        "urls": []
      },
      "url": {}
    },
    "fastFollowersCount": 0,
    "favouritesCount": 39554,
    "hasCustomTimelines": true,
    "isTranslator": false,
    "mediaCount": 1306,
    "statusesCount": 10912,
    "withheldInCountries": [],
    "affiliatesHighlightedLabel": {},
    "possiblySensitive": false,
    "pinnedTweetIds": [
      "2044096504655425698"
    ],
    "profile_bio": {
      "description": "Research @allen_ai, reasoning, open models, RL(VR/HF)...\nContact via email. \nWrites @interconnectsai, @readsail\nWrote The RLHF Book,\nπŸ”οΈπŸƒβ€β™‚οΈ",
      "entities": {
        "description": {
          "hashtags": [],
          "symbols": [],
          "urls": [],
          "user_mentions": [
            {
              "id_str": "0",
              "indices": [
                9,
                18
              ],
              "name": "",
              "screen_name": "allen_ai"
            },
            {
              "id_str": "0",
              "indices": [
                84,
                100
              ],
              "name": "",
              "screen_name": "interconnectsai"
            },
            {
              "id_str": "0",
              "indices": [
                102,
                111
              ],
              "name": "",
              "screen_name": "readsail"
            }
          ]
        },
        "url": {
          "urls": [
            {
              "display_url": "natolambert.com",
              "expanded_url": "https://natolambert.com/",
              "indices": [
                0,
                23
              ],
              "url": "https://t.co/NLbPtr9U1U"
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    "isAutomated": false,
    "automatedBy": null
  },
  "extendedEntities": {},
  "card": null,
  "place": {},
  "entities": {
    "hashtags": [],
    "symbols": [],
    "urls": [],
    "user_mentions": []
  },
  "quoted_tweet": null,
  "retweeted_tweet": null,
  "isLimitedReply": false,
  "communityInfo": null,
  "article": null
}