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  "text": "This is the time of year when pundits offer predictions, instead, we offer scenarios and things to watch for as a variety of possible futures unfold.\n\nHere are a few key paragraphs:\n\n\"Regard benchmark performance with skepticism, since benchmarks are even more likely to be gamed when investors are losing enthusiasm than they are now, while everyone is still afraid of missing out.\n\nReports from practitioners actually deploying AI systems are far more important. Right now, tactical progress is strong. We see software developers in particular making profound changes in development workflows. Watch for whether they are seeing continued improvement or a plateau. Is the gap between demo and production narrowing or persisting? How much human oversight do deployed systems require? Listen carefully to reports from practitioners about what AI can actually do in their domain versus what it’s hyped to do.\n\nWe are not persuaded by surveys of corporate attitudes. Having lived through the realities of internet and open source software adoption, we know that, like Hemingway’s marvelous metaphor of bankruptcy, corporate adoption happens gradually, then suddenly, with late adopters often full of regret.\"\n\nhttps://t.co/NAAOaaqFWT",
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