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@alexolegimas

A lot of the AI productivity data either comes from controlled "micro" studies or noisy aggregate data. A new paper presents data from huge survey of *firms*, i.e., CEO and CFOs. This is exactly the type of data many of us have been waiting for. Lots of important results both on current adoption/employment consequences of AI, and future forecasts. Currently: 1. AI has some adoption across 70% of firms. 2. Some cross-country differences. US adoption towards top end (78%), Australia towards bottom (59%). 3. ~70% of executives use AI, but only around 1.5 hours a week. 4. Large majority of execs report essentially zero productivity boost from AI. Perhaps not super surprising given how recently it's been adopted. 5. Essentially zero impact on employment. Forecasts (large effects): 1. Execs predict large productivity gains over next three years, more than 2% in US, closer to 1% in Germany, Australia. 2. Execs predict negative employment effects, eg -1.19% in the US. 3. Interestingly, Accommodations and Food/ Wholesale and Retail are expected to have largest drops in employment (2%) 4. Employment forecasts are becoming *more* negative over time. Lots of great stuff in the paper, kudos to the team.

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