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  "text": "@itaisher I would say you are technically right, but potentially practically wrong? That is, there is no way for me to demonstrate that all AI abilities are on an exponential (and they are not, the frontier is always jagged). So you are right.\n\nHowever, where I would push back is that AI model's ability to do valuable work seems to be increasing at an exponential pace. This is supported by the unbounded benchmarks that we have (GDPval, Epoch, METR, etc.) as well as studies of code shipped with AI, medical ability, etc. All of these also correlate well (both in my independent measures and also see paper below) and match \"vibes.\" There is an underlying ability measure increasing at an exponential pace.\n\nAdd to that the hints of RSI happening in these systems, and the fact that models are now tripping national alarm bells, and, well... I would argue that we are in a period of very rapid ability increase and the whole point of my post was that I think too many people have their heads in the sand about this.",
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