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Despite expecting significant AI progress, economists' overall (unconditional) forecasts for the economy stay close to today's trends. Median economist forecasts: • Annual GDP growth: 2.5% in 2030 and 2050 (compared to 2.4% in 2025) • Labor force participation rate: 61% in 2030, 58% in 2050 (compared to 62.6% in 2025) But, in a ‘rapid’ AI progress world, economists expect larger shifts (see red lines in figures below).
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