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@MollySOShea

I asked @Alfred_Lin of @sequoia: Which companies are gonna fail? "I work in a business where our most successful fund had a 50% write-off rate. “The companies that are most vulnerable have very similar characteristics.” “It’s the companies that don’t embrace change.” “They don’t understand that they’re in a paradigm shift. They think what worked yesterday will work today.” “What was a moat yesterday and what is a moat today are completely different.”

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    "text": "BREAKING: The Future According to Sequoia\n\n$10 Trillion Companies Are Coming..\n\nAlfred Lin, Partner & new Co-Steward of Sequoia \n(#1 investor on the Midas List)\n\n“When I joined Sequoia the largest market cap company was probably $300B or $400B dollars. Today we have companies that are worth $4-5T.”\n\n“If you give it another 5-10 years… those companies continue to compound, it’ll be worth $10 trillion or more.”\n\nFor more than 5 decades, @sequoia has backed many of the most consequential companies in technology, from Apple, Nvidia, Airbnb, DoorDash, Stripe, & more. \n\nBut as @Alfred_Lin explains in this conversation, Sequoia does not think about the 54-year-old firm the way many others do. Rather than optimizing around AUM, Sequoia focuses on DPI & being a net liquidity provider to LPs. \n\nSince 2020, the firm has distributed more than $43 billion back to investors (as of Oct 27, 2025).\n\nIn this conversation, Alfred breaks down:\n- Why AI is accelerating startup growth and product velocity\n- Why “AI kills SaaS” is the wrong framework\n- How moats change during paradigm shifts\n- What Alfred is hearing in boardrooms right now\n- Which companies are most vulnerable in the AI era\n- Founder-market fit & the importance of “spikes”\n- Why the next generation of companies could be much bigger than today’s giants\n- How Sequoia identifies outlier founders across companies like Airbnb, DoorDash, Kalshi, Zipline, Clay, Commure, Nominal, Physical Intelligence, Crosby, OpenAI, and Citadel Securities.\n\nRecorded live Feb 26th at the @upfrontvc Summit 2026\n\n𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒\n(00:00) Alfred Lin, Partner & Co-Steward at Sequoia Capital\n(01:00) The metric Sequoia actually cares about\n(02:54) $43B distributed since 2020\n(05:41) The biggest wave Alfred has seen in his career\n(08:19) Amazon did not k*ll Walmart\n(10:09) Paradigm shifts and changing moats\n(14:38) Boardroom conversations about the future\n(17:11) Companies that fail to adapt fall behind\n(19:31) From waterfall development to agile teams\n(23:06) Sequoia’s AI investment strategy\n(24:48) Managing context switching between portfolio companies\n(26:00) Becoming Co-Steward of Sequoia Capital\n(29:31) How to navigate the AI wave",
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