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  "text": "Every chart crime has a corresponding \"correct\" data visualization that pretends the same information in an unbiased way. Below: a quarterly timeseries of SPX forward PEs and annualized 5-year forward returns (note: this is 5 year instead of 10 because that's what I wanted to look at)\n\nRight now the SPX forward PE is 19.8x. Here are the closest tuples to this value, historically:\n\nQ4 1997:   19.3x ➡️ -0.6%\nQ4 2000: 21.8x ➡️+0.5%\nQ4 2001:  21.4x ➡️+6.2%\nQ4 2017:   18.2x ➡️+9.4%\nQ4 2019:  18.4x ➡️+14.5%\nQ4 2020:  22.1x ➡️+14.4%\n\nThe inverse correlation between forward PE and future returns is real, but it is weak and you absolutely cannot infer that future returns from now on will be low or negative",
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