@DeryaTR_
About what Mustafa Suleyman just posted, this is exactly what I had written more than a year ago. How is it working out for the “AI hitting a wall or a ceiling” folks? 😅 https://t.co/7eg17r9R4n
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"text": "We're not hitting an AI ceiling. Here's why the AI scaling skeptics are wrong.\n\nExponentials help us understand everything that's going on in AI. For thousands of years, we lived in a linear world. Two apple trees produced about twice as many as one did. Walking half as far took half as long. AI broke that mold - and our imaginations haven't yet evolved to catch up.\n\nSince I began work on AI in 2010, the amount of training data that goes into frontier AI models has grown by one trillion times. It's taken us from models that can sometimes identify cars in photos to models that can act autonomously for up to 12 hours at a time, using different apps, taking actions.\n\nIt's an exponential explosion. Now consider that we're looking at something like another 1000x in effective compute by the end of 2028.\n \nMoore's Law, exponential itself, can't even keep up. Training a language model that took 167 minutes on 8 GPUs in 2020 now completes in under 4 minutes on equivalent modern hardware. That's a 50x improvement, when Moore's would predict only 5x.\n\nSkeptics who keep predicting these \"walls\" AI will hit often point to a slowing of Moore's law, when in fact, Moore's law seems to be underestimating what's possible. Sometimes they point to energy constraints. Meanwhile, solar costs have fallen nearly 100x over fifty years; battery prices have dropped 97% over three decades. There is a pathway to clean scaling coming into view.\n \nImpressive stats aside, what does this mean for us?\n \nIt means we're standing at the precipice of cognitive abundance. Previously impossible benefits in sight if not already within reach, from new healthcare cures to scientific breakthroughs. That's the world our superintelligence lab is planning for and proactively building.\n \nI hope all of us start reimagining what might be possible, and how fast. What do we want that world to look like? It'll be here sooner than we think.\n\nMore thoughts here: https://t.co/LyGfdjr5x6",
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