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@alexolegimas

Great to be featured in @bencasselman 's excellent NYT article on the economics of AI. Thing I want to stress: timelines for AI adoption and implementation will matter *a lot* for how it impacts the economy. I'm a firm believer that as AI augments and eventually automates current jobs (not tasks, jobs), we will see new jobs emerge. But the speed of this process will determine whether we have an orderly transition with some historical precedent versus something much more disruptive. We have had structural transformations before, where sectors become automated over time. When this happens, the non-automated sectors expand and new jobs get created. You can see this in the relationship between agriculture (automated) vs. services (non-automated) below. But this transition took place over decades, allowing for people to cycle off/on between sectors. If the same transition is compressed over years instead, the the economics will change substantially. We will need much more scope for public policy to manage it.

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