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  "text": "The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel is a really well thought out AI forecasting exercise and I have been happy to participate as an advisor. Here is the launch whitepaper: https://t.co/oSLN9AGayN https://t.co/7dLo1QSxQO",
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        "ext_alt_text": "Across the first three waves of LEAP, five patterns stand out:1. Experts expect sizable near‑term societal effects from AI by 2040.2. Substantial disagreement and uncertainty underlie expert forecasts.3. The median expert expects much slower progress than prominent leaders of frontier AI\nlabs.4. Experts anticipate faster progress than the public on most outcomes.5. Experts and superforecasters mostly agree. Where they disagree, experts tend to expect\nmore AI progress. Also, there are no systematic differences between the predictions of\ndifferent types of experts: computer scientists, economists, industry professionals, and\npolicy professionals.",
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