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  "text": "We first tested whether Claude can give an accurate estimate of how long a task takes. Its estimates were promising—even if they’re not as accurate as those from humans just yet. https://t.co/ijHZBYvx95",
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        "ext_alt_text": "Correlation of actual time spent on software engineering tasks with developer and Claude estimates. Left: correlation with developers’ initial time estimates with the final time-tracked outcomes. Developers are familiar with the full codebase and understand the full context behind the request and how long similar tasks have taken. Middle: correlation with Claude Sonnet 4.5’s estimates, given just the task title and description of the JIRA ticket. Right: Correlation with Claude Sonnet 4.5’s estimates, given 10 examples in the prompt to calibrate on. Overall, Claude’s estimates have similar directional correlation to developers: Spearman’s ρ=0.44, compared to ρ=0.50 for developers, though Claude significantly overestimates short tasks and underestimates long ones. Axes are log (base 10) scaled. Error bars are 95% CIs per bin.",
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